Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.182546 0.213027 0.246461 0.285782 0.330679 0.380262 0.439082
2025-12-07 0.126417 0.166251 0.214700 0.277592 0.356662 0.452326 0.576333
2025-12-14 0.094995 0.136855 0.191891 0.268755 0.372399 0.506241 0.690897
2025-12-21 0.075152 0.116941 0.175586 0.262589 0.386780 0.555773 0.800749
2025-12-28 0.063821 0.106168 0.169022 0.267177 0.414150 0.623023 0.938384
2026-01-04 0.056254 0.099353 0.166593 0.276450 0.447945 0.700988 1.096588
2026-01-11 0.049445 0.092385 0.162570 0.282132 0.476050 0.772110 1.249761
2026-01-18 0.043290 0.085358 0.157229 0.284578 0.498630 0.835931 1.396120
2026-01-25 0.037826 0.078559 0.151163 0.284716 0.516881 0.893715 1.536673
2026-02-01 0.032738 0.071555 0.143675 0.281242 0.528260 0.940723 1.662760
2026-02-08 0.028324 0.065085 0.136196 0.276675 0.536882 0.983243 1.783845
2026-02-15 0.023946 0.057909 0.126354 0.266425 0.534061 1.005638 1.872036
2026-02-22 0.022774 0.057444 0.129701 0.281888 0.580074 1.116933 2.122435
2026-03-01 0.019474 0.051696 0.121620 0.274047 0.581761 1.150081 2.238882
2026-03-08 0.016601 0.046377 0.113642 0.265333 0.580650 1.177644 2.346751
2026-03-15 0.014351 0.042123 0.107335 0.259239 0.583890 1.213124 2.471033
2026-03-22 0.013124 0.040230 0.106062 0.263775 0.608996 1.291664 2.680607
2026-03-29 0.012313 0.039287 0.106859 0.272941 0.644463 1.392587 2.939011
2026-04-05 0.011371 0.037805 0.106149 0.278558 0.672783 1.481237 3.179113
2026-04-12 0.010359 0.035923 0.104182 0.280976 0.694266 1.557488 3.399415
2026-04-19 0.009351 0.033846 0.101413 0.281113 0.710578 1.624077 3.604226
2026-04-26 0.008304 0.031426 0.097391 0.277678 0.718402 1.673427 3.776979
2026-05-03 0.007339 0.029056 0.093151 0.273164 0.723231 1.716610 3.939473